Gerry Adams MP MLA and Bairbre De Bruin MEP Sinn Fein
I am not a native nor an expert on Northern Ireland politics, but as there appears to be no one else of that ilk around here (with the possible exception of Eurocentric) I will offer my take on the Northern Ireland European Parliament Elections which take place today.
Politics in Northern Ireland has always been primarily about tribal identity. You are either a Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist or a Catholic/Nationalist/Republican with the latter ends of those labels being at the extreme end of the spectrum.
Of course this isn’t an entirely fair description of the entire spectrum. The Alliance Party has tried valiantly to fly the flag for (largely middle class) non-sectarian politics. The Social Democrat and Labour Party (SDLP), previously led by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, John Hume, has also tried hard to break the sectarian divide and appeal to more progressively minded voters on both sides of the divide - with limited success.
There were also the Peace People, the Women’s Coalition, the Greens, and a number of smaller parties and individuals who tried to create a normal political space in a state that was founded explicitly in order to maintain a majority for one “community” over another.
But as Winston Churchill wrote after the first World War:
“Every institution in the world was strained. Great Empires have been overturned. The whole map of Europe has been changed… But as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short, we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again. The integrity of their quarrel is one of the few institutions that has been unaltered in the cataclysm which has swept the world.”
Reginald Maudling a former British Home Secretary is reputed to have said as he sank into his airline seat after a visit to try and pacify the warring tribes.
“FOR GOD’S sake bring me a large Scotch. What a bloody awful country.”
All of which is a long way of saying that the world may have changed, this election is for a European Parliament dedicated to ending war in Europe, but the primary factor motivating voters to vote is still the tribal identity of the candidates.
Yes, the Peace Process has changed a lot, and there is now a more or less functional administration comprising both the loyalist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - formerly lead by Ian Paisley - and Sinn Fein, the Republican wing of nationalist or Republican voters. But on the ground sectarianism still reigns - as witnessed recently by a large loyalist mob which invaded a nationalist housing estate and beat to death a nationalist community worker out looking for his son. Why? Scottish football Club Glasgow Rangers, representing the Protestant side of Glasgow, had just won the Scottish football league at the expense of Glasgow Celtic - the “Catholic” supported Club.
Of course, as in any polity, there are many who say “a plague on both their houses”; who keep their heads down and get on with their daily lives as best they can. But if they don’t vote or support non-sectarian initiatives they also don’t have much impact on the conduct of political life.
Thus we have Diane Dodds (DUP) successor to Ian Paisley and favoured to head the poll in the European Elections - challenged from her right - by sitting MEP Jim McAlister (Traditional Unionist Party) - who fell out with the DUP because it dared to enter a power-sharing administration with Sinn Fein.
Then we have sitting MEP Jim Nicholson of the Unionist Party who have just entered into a pact with the British Conservatives to purse a brand of integrationist politics with Britain as if Northern Ireland was no different from England; as if Nationalists did not exist or did not matter.
The second seat will almost certainly go to sitting MEP Bairbre De Bruin (Sinn Fein) with a straight down the line Nationalist/Republican vote.
Also On the Nationalist side, the more centrist SDLP has been severely eclipsed by Sinn Fein since the retirement of John Hume and as part of the ongoing process of polarisation in Northern Ireland politics which has seen parties from the fringes continually marginalise those with sought to develop some kind of more moderate non-sectarian centre in Northern Ireland politics.
‘The Second Coming’ by William Butler Yeats
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
The SDLP’s main hope is that their candidate, Alban Maginness (not to be confused with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness), will benefit from the three way split in the Unionist vote between Dodds, Allister and Nicholson, and sneak in for the last seat with the help of transfers from minor parties and candidates. It may be a forlorn hope unless there is a major change in Northern Ireland voting patterns with a significant increase in non-sectarian and cross community vote transfers.
The irony here is that the British Government agreed to use the Irish single transferable vote system instead of the “First past the post” system as used in British Parliamentary elections or the List System as used in British European Parliamentary elections in an explicit attempt to encourage more cross community vote transfers and to enable more proportional outcomes to the elections. However with Northern Ireland having just three European Parliament seats, two are always going to go to the 60% majority (Unionist) community, with one going to the minority Nationalist Community.
Perhaps reflecting the certainty of this outcome, there are, remarkably, no opinion polls on the EP elections in Northern Ireland. However, I for one, will be keenly watching the detail of the vote counts and transfer of patterns for lower preference votes in order to see if their is some change in the traditional voting patterns and to see whether the peace process is finally trickling down from the political class to the behaviour of ordinary voters.
If you see Alban McGuinness of the SDLP getting anywhere close to a European Parliament seat you will know that “the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone” are indeed capable of change.
(5 votes, average: 4.80 out of 5)
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Excellent post, Frank!
The European Election campaign has been mainly about the tribal nationalist-unionist divide (it’s been said that any NI election is nothing more than a glorified census). The DUP especially have pushed the importance of “topping the poll” (Sinn Féin’s de Brún topped the poll in 2004).
Since there are 3 seats up for grabs, “topping the poll” doesn’t really matter, and it’s sad to see a resort to playing the “Orange card” in this day and age (and Sinn Féin have thus implicitly played the “Green card”, since if they’re the ones to beat, then that automatically boosts their credibility against the SDLP…). The DUP and Sinn Féin barely have to say what they’re for. (What, exactly, does “winning for unionism” actually mean? Policies, please).
Dr. Sidney Elliot (QUB) has done a lot of work on analyzing the electoral trends in NI (though be wary when reading any academic work on NI since agendas and viewpoints trickle through). Apparently, UUP voters increasingly give (starting from a low level, though) post-UUP preferences to the SDLP rather than the DUP, and vice versa (though SDLP voters tend to transfer to Alliance rather than the UUP). There may be some scope in the future for a SDLP-UUP-(& perhaps Alliance) coalition fighting elections on a common government programme and electoral strategy, but it’s a long way off.
Which is a pity, since I think they could rebuild their parties by doing so.
The UUP are trying to be pan-UK, as opposed to Sinn Féin’s pan-Ireland boast. Not everyone in the UUP is right-wing, though, so it causes problems within the party (their sole MP is likely to rebel against the alliance). So Tory politics aren’t even the same as UUP politics. It’s all about gaining advantage, both intra-communally and inter-communally. Still, the UUP are good enough as a moderate party.
Alban Maginness winning a seat would be a victory for moderates (and pro-Europeans), but it’s unlikely to be seen that way. He would have won due to the unionist split, and it will serve as a warning to the unionist community against splitting the vote in the future. Maybe if he can portray himself as (and hopefully be) a good MEP he could change that perception. My feeling though, is that politics needs to be changed at a Stormont (regional government) level first…
I’ve tried to use my vote to strengthen moderate parties and the European parties I want to strengthen.
I’ve emailed the candidates with a few European-issue based questions and 4 out of 7 replied, which is better than I thought since I only sent it on Sunday evening. If you’re interested, they’re here:
http://theeuropeancitizen.blogspot.com/2009/05/asking-candidates.html
(And sorry to everyone out there whom I’ve bored half to death with NI politics. I’m far, far from an expert on the subject, and I’m aware how ridiculous the whole thing can seem when you explain it to someone who hasn’t grown up in NI.)
P.S. The NI vote won’t be counted until Monday.
P.P.S. If anyone’s interested in NI politics, then I’d recommend the Slugger O’Toole blog, which has people from both nationalist and unionist backgrounds contributing.
Thanks Eurocentric, for your excellent and informed comments. Such a pity you can’t post your own stories here. Perhaps after the EP elections the EJC will agree to open up this blogging platform to a wider community.
Your analysis follows a typical course in that the tribal squabble is portrayed as the only thing that matters to the people. It isn’t. Turnout is likely to be awful.
You also gloss over the entry of the Conservative Party. It’s not about ignoring nationalists and pretending they don’t exist. Quite the opposite. It’s about Northern Ireland, for the first time, being embraced by a national Party. It’s nonsense to suggest that only constitional issues matter to people. A substantial percentage of the Catholic community aren’t Nationalist at all.
The fact that the Conservatives have entered the fray shows that NI politics are moving beyond constitutional issues. (Although the Party has been organised here for 20 years but with no interest until DC became leader). The border issue is done. Now it’s time to participate.
But the appalling level of turnout is a reflection of the Westminster expenses row, and general disinterest in sectarian political anoraks.
However, the entry of the Conservative Party in (active) NI politics is a good thing. It is a faltering step towards normalisation. Just a pity the Conservative (and Unionist) candidate is so dull.
Thanks Jeffrey,
The latest reports would certainly appear to vindicate your view that turnout will be awful - particularly in working class loyalist areas - so it will be interesting to see how this effects the outcome.
I would expect that it marginally improves Alban McGuiness’ chances of being elected, which will be a remarkable change from the previously almost exclusively tribal politics…
You state that:
But it isn’t. Sinn Fein is an Irish “national party” in the same way as the Conservatives are a British (now virtually reduced to an English) National party. The border issue is a live as ever. The difference now, is that it has been agreed by all the major players that it can only be addressed by democratic and consensual means, which is a major step forward from the war we had for 30 years.
Personally I don’t think the Conservative embrace of the Unionists is all that significant, and may do them more harm than good. But lets see what the electorate says!
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