I’m out of Ireland at the moment and really missing the election buzz. I’m a real junkey for numbers and love the complexities of the Irish single transferable vote proportional representation system. It allows voters to vote for a list of candidates in order of their preference 1,2,3,4,5,6, etc. If the candidate who got your number one is eliminated, your vote isn’t lost. It goes to the candidate you gave your number 2 preference to. Many voters deliberately give their initial preferences to candidates they want to encourage but who they know will be eliminated.
Their vote keeps being transferred right down their list of their preferences until it elects someone in the last count - unless all your preferences were for losing candidates. If a candidate gets more than the quota of votes required to win one of the seats in a constituency (25% +1 in a three seat constituency) then the surplus is distributed in order of their next preferences.
The upshot of all this apparent complexity (which is remarkably well understood by the electorate as a whole) is that virtually all votes matter, there are very few constituencies where the outcome is absolutely clear beforehand, and thus every constituency is a marginal or swing constituency, and none can be safely ignored by the party campaigns. The system also throws up a remarkable array of successful independent and minor party candidates which keeps participation relatively high and keeps at bay voter apathy based on the perception that “their all the same” or its always only a choice between “tweedledum and tweedledee” with no one else having a chance.
Finally, it discourages a polarisation of party politics, because (a) if you piss off all the other parties/candidates, you are unlikely to get many lower preferences from their voters, and (b) because no party is likely to get the c. 50% of the vote required for an overall majority, and thus will have to work with at least some of the parties they have vilified to form a coalition government. This last factor is what has done for Sinn Fein and Libertas in this election, despite their impressive first preference vote performances. For an analysis of the results to date, please see below. - [Update] the completed resultrs are now available below
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Dublin Constituency
RTÉ News: Election 2009
European Election 2009 - DUBLIN Status: Complete Turnout: 50.8% Total Valid Poll: 406,630
Seats: 3 Quota: 101,658 Electorate: 812,465
Candidate Party %1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6 Count 7 BYRNE, Eibhlin 4.7 18956 19448 - - - - - DE BÚRCA, Déirdre 4.7 19086 20226 21991 - - - - DE ROSSA, Proinsias* 20.5 83471 85217 87274 94306 95636 103225 103225 HIGGINS, Joe 12.4 50510 52457 53038 55116 55351 60165 82366 McDONALD, Mary Lou* 11.8 47928 50097 50980 52447 52529 55429 - McKENNA, Patricia 4.3 17521 21523 22380 25213 25636 - - MITCHELL, Gay* 23.8 96715 99098 100810 104413 104413 104413 104413 RYAN, Eoin* 13.6 55346 56317 66205 68517 69122 71530 76956 SIMONS, Caroline 3.3 13514 - - - - - - SWEENEY, Emmanuel 0.9 3583 - - - - - -
The key points to note here is that a right wing (Gay Mitchell - Fine Gael/EPP) and a left wing (Proinsias DE ROSSA, Labour/PES) candidate topped the poll and the third seat was a straight fight between a nationalist (soon to join ALDE) candidate (Eoin Ryan) and two even more left wing/nationalist candidates (Jim Higgins (Socialist) and sitting MEP Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein). Dublin now has a huge left wing majority and Jim Higgins eventually won because the was attracting more transfers than Mary Lou McDonald and when she was eliminated, her transfers moved him ahead of Eoin Ryan.
The fact that the main Governing party and dominant force in Irish Politics since its formation in 1926, Fianna Fail, has failed to win a seat in the capital, is a severe blow to the credibility of Party Leader and Prime Minister Brian Cowen. Fianna Fail also lost two bye-elections to the Irish Parliament and many local election seats. Brian Cowen’s future now rests in the hands of the Green party who also suffered heavily at the hands of an angry electorate. The comparisons between Brian Cowen’s parlous situation and that of Gordon Brown are well made.
An interesting sub-plot is the almost complete absence of transfers from DE BÚRCA, Déirdre (Greens) to former Green MEP Patricia McKenna reflecting the bitterness of the split between the Greens and their former MEP over the issue of Coalition with Fianna Fail. Caroline Simons of Libertas scored a derisory 3%.
Ireland East Constituency
European Election 2009 - EAST Status: Complete Turnout: 56.8% Total Valid Poll: 429,249
Seats: 3 Quota: 107,313 Electorate: 778,502
Candidate Party %1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6 Count 7 AYLWARD, Liam* 17.4 74666 74866 75124 76295 77044 99236 103605 BYRNE, Thomas 7.2 31112 31264 31480 32276 33383 - - CHILDERS, Nessa 18.3 78338 78914 80145 84198 86654 89355 102220 FUNCHION, Kathleen 6.2 26567 26647 27132 29305 43085 44422 - GARVEY, Paddy 0.7 2934 2945 - - - - - GREALY, Micheál 0.4 1514 1523 - - - - - McGUINNESS, Mairead* 25.7 110366 110366 110366 110366 110366 110366 110366 O’MALLEY, Raymond 4.3 18557 18728 19396 - - - - PHELAN, John Paul 14.4 61851 63590 64169 67972 69608 70846 76960 SHARKEY, Tomás 4.9 20932 21034 21461 23954 - - - TALLON, Jim 0.6 2412 2425 - - - - -
This constituency was much less of a cliff hanger with relatively straightforward wins for Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael/EPP), Liam Alward (Fianna Fail/ALDE) and Nessa Childers (Labour/PES). This represents a pick-up for Labour from Fine Gael mainly because Nessa Childers (daughter of a former Fianna Fail President, grand-daughter of a hero of the fight for Irish Independence, and former Green party local Councilor) received a lot of transfers from other candidates. She thus won the third seat despite the fact that, in terms of first preferences, Fine Gael had moore than twice the vote of Labour.
Ireland South [Updated]
European Election 2009 - SOUTH Status: Complete Turnout: 59.2% Total Valid Poll: 498,127
Seats: 3 Quota: 124,532 Electorate: 861,727
Candidate Party %1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6 Count 7 Count 8 BOYLE, Dan 3.1 15499 16250 - - - - - - BURKE, Colm* 10.8 53721 54617 57190 57884 58654 - - - CROWLEY, Brian* 23.7 118258 119625 122404 132410 132410 132410 132410 132410 FERRIS, Toiréasa 13.0 64671 65861 67304 68296 69295 73389 74480 - KELLY, Alan 12.9 64152 66121 69683 70309 70991 78651 83921 105597 KELLY, Seán 18.6 92579 94430 96153 97482 98394 134712 134712 134712 O’KEEFFE, Ned 3.3 16596 16896 17124 - - - - - SEXTON, Maurice 0.5 2474 - - - - - - - SINNOTT, Kathy* 11.7 58485 62057 64295 65518 66920 71349 75168 95134 STAFFORD, Alexander 2.3 11692 - - - - - - -
Brian Cowley (Fianna Fail/ALDE) on the first count, and Seán Kelly (Fine Gael/EPP) on the sixth count have been elected and the last seat is a real cliff hanger beween sitting MEP Cathy Sinnott (Independent) and Alan Kelly (Labour). It all depends on how Toiréasa Ferris (Sinn Fein) votes transfer. Alan Kelly is 8,000 votes ahead now, but women candidates tend to transfer preferentially to women candidates and Kathy Sinnott has proven to be a very “transfer friendly” candidate. My money is on Alan Kelly, just, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. UPDATE SOON.
[Update] As expected, Alan Kelly managed to hold on for the the last seat, giving Labour three EP seats for the first time and tripling their representation from the last Parliament.
Ireland North West [Updated}
European Election 2009 - NORTH WEST Status: Complete Turnout: 63.4% Total Valid Poll: 495,307
Seats: 3 Quota: 123,827 Electorate: 805,626
Candidate Party %1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6 GALLAGHER, Pat The Cope 16.7 82643 84680 85842 87714 112622 120930 GANLEY, Declan 13.7 67638 69925 72475 73994 75705 84277 HARKIN, Marian* 17.1 84813 89938 99561 103942 112210 121672 HIGGINS, Jim* 16.2 80093 82457 86597 111133 113810 120185 HIGGINS, John Francis 0.6 3030 - - - - - KING, Thomas 0.2 1124 - - - - - MacLOCHLAINN, Pádraig 9.2 45515 47413 50225 52384 54737 - McCULLAGH, Noel 0.4 1940 - - - - - McNAMARA, Michael 2.6 12744 - - - - - MOONEY, Paschal 8.7 42985 44719 45687 47702 - - O'KEEFFE, Susan 5.8 28708 31176 - - - - Ó LUAIN, Fiachra 1.3 6510 - - - - - O'REILLY, Joe 7.6 37564 38854 42350 - - -
Libertas Leader Declan Ganley requested a recount which has resulted in a delay in the counting process. So far only a first count has been completed however the result is already clear with seats for Pat The Cope GALLAGHER (Fianna Fail/ALDE), Marian HARKIN (Independent) and Jim HIGGINS (Fine Gael/EPP) despite an impressive 14% vote for Declan Ganley. The reason I don't expect him to win a seat is that I don't expect him to get as many lower preference votes as the others. (UPDATE to follow)
[Update] As expected, Declan Ganley failed to attract enough transferred lower preference votes to be elected. But isn’t it remarkable how close the top three candidates were to each other on the final count? Had one of these three candidates fallen well off the pace, Ganley might just have snuck in there.
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My analysis
Based purely on the raw figures and without having listened to any of the discussions or surrounding analysis, my conclusions would be as follows:
1. There hasn’t been a historic left-right re-alignmentin Irish politics as earlier opinion polls suggested. Labour did very well increasing its representation from 1 to 3 seats (equal to Fianna Fail) but remains in third place in terms of the popular vote.
2. Whilst not a crushing blow to Fianna Fail and the Greens, it puts extreme strain on their coalition government and it remains to be seen how long it will survive.
3. Fine Gael becomes the largest political party - when combined with their local government election wins - and senior Governing party in waiting (for the next General Election). This doesn’t represent a huge ideological change, but a switch to a more cautious conservatism leery of the excesses of booming building, financial services, “pro-enterprise” policies and dubious public/private ethics of Fianna Fail which have such disastrous consequences for the economy.
We live in interesting times…
[End update]
(7 votes, average: 4.14 out of 5)
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I’m also a very big fan of STV (or AV, which is just a variation of STV when the magnitude of constituencies is 1).
Unfortunately, such systems can only work in established democracies, where there is at least a sense of decency among all participants in elections. Here you are explaining how nice this type of electoral formula is working in Ireland, while here in Romania there are endless discussions about electoral fraud and the basic question is which of the two winning parties manage to steal more votes.
lets face it this is more fun: http://www.bucharestherald.com/politics/34-politics/3540-elena-basescu-a-castigat-ca-independent-alegerile-europarlamentare-iar-apoi-s-a-reinscris-in-pd-l-
I’m afraid I’m not qualified to comment on Romanian politics - but yes - there is generally a high standard of behaviour and probity in the conduct of Irish elections.
It is interesting to note that the high profile anti-Lisbon candidates all did very badly, with Mary Lou McDonald and Kathy Sinnott losing their seats, Ganley failing to win one, and former Green MEP (and anti-Lisbon campaigner) Patricia McKenna also doing very badly.
The key issue for the referendum on Lisbon will now be the turnout. If it is reasonably high, it will be passed by a large majority.
It’s interesting to see how badly Sinn Féin did overall - when the local councils were elected, the left wing swing went to Labour and some even more minor left-wing parties rather than SF.
I’m delighted to see Kathy Sinnot gone!
I’m also a fan of STV, and it’s annoying to hear PR in general being bashed in the UK simply because they’ve picked one of the worst systems of it. But then, reading his constitutional proposals, I’ve come to the conclusion that Cameron is either twisting things to his advantage, or is woefully ignorant when it comes to the basic rules for running a country.
I have this feeling that Brown could be as good as it gets for the UK for the foreseeable future. It’s not that I don’t appreciate the reasons for calls for his departure. Just that I don’t see a better alternative…
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