2 days to go until the Euro-elections in Romania and, based on the latest opinion polls and on the electoral procedures which guide these elections (closed list PR system with 5% threshold and one national constituency), we can have a pretty accurate estimation of how the 33 MEP seats give to Romania will be distributed.
The European People’s Party is the clear winner of the elections in Romania. The EPP will gain at least 13 MEP’s in Romania, meaning at least 40%. The EPP has three member parties in Romania: the Democrat-Liberal Party (DLP), the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (DAHR) and the National Peasant Party. Also, independent candidate Elena Basescu left the DPL to run for the elections, but has just announced that she will rejoin the party in the evening of the elections. The National Peasant Party is grounded at 1% and does not have a chance to pass the 5% threshold. The DPL is set to score around 31% of the votes, the DAHR 6,6% and Elena Basescu 3.9% (which is enough for an independent to gain a seat). The EPP is the most “popular” European party in Romania, being the only one with three affiliated national parties, hence it will win the Euro-elections in Romania for many many years to come.
Second in the Romanian elections is the Party of European Socialists. The PES is sure to win 10 seats and can hope for 1 more. The only PES member party in Romania, the Social Democrat Party (SDP), is right now tied with the DLP at 31%.
Third come the Alliance of Liberal and Democrats for Europe, represented in Romania by the National Liberal Party (NLP). It is now set to score 20.2% of the votes, meaning that 6 MEP seats will go to the ALDE. The European Liberals are represented by a second Romanian Party, the Conservatives, but they are in an alliance with the Social Democrats and their only eligible candidates will join the Socialist group.
The two crazy guys from the Greater Romania Party (GRP) - Vadim Tudor and Gigi Becali - seem to catch the last train for the EP. They are expected to score almost 6% of the votes, meaning they will gain 2 seats and they will probably join the Union for Europe of the Nations group.
So far, 31 seats seem to have a sure winner and it seems like the only question marks are where the two remaining seats, which will be decided after redistributing the votes of the parties who will not pass the threshold. One of the seats will be battled out between the DPL and the SPD and the second seat will go most likely to the NLP, but the DAHR is also in with a chance. So, the EPP could win 2 more seats, but might as well not win any more seats, with the same number of votes. PES and ALDE also have a chance to win an extra seat.
Thus, here is the almost complete list of the Romanian MEP’s, according to the group they will join in the EP (those with an URL are already MEP’s):
EPP-ED:
Theodor Stolojan, Monica Macovei, Traian Ungureanu, Cristian Preda, Marian-Jean Marinescu, Iosif Matula, Sebastian Bodu, Petru Luhan, Rares Niculescu, Oana Antonescu, Tokes Laszlo, Winkler Iuliu, Elena Basescu (maybe Sogor Csaba and Constantin Dimitriu).
PES:
Adrian Severin, Rovana Plumb, Ioan-Mircea Pascu, Adriana Ticau, Daciana Sarbu, Corina Cretu, Victor Bostinaru, Sabin Cutas, Sorin Ivan, Ioan Enciu.
ALDE:
Norica Nicolai, Adina Valean, Renate Weber, Ramona Manescu, Cristian Busoi, Ben Oni Ardelean (and maybe Ovidiu Silaghi).
UEN:
Corneliu Vadim Tudor, Gigi Becali.
There is a minor chance that the GRP will not pass the threshodl after all, and then 2 more seats will be up for grabs. My feeling is the Socialists would benefit from this and gain at least another safe seat, but also the EPP (through their Hungarian member), is likely to gain the second seat, though the Liberals could also be in with a chance.
I think it’s funny how we can know 93% of the MEP’s even before voting. The competitive side of the elections is almost annuled because of the electoral procedures. Again I must come back to my innitiative regarding the need for electoral reform and to my clear proposals for reform.
Otherwise, all this talk about how we, voters, must vote in order to decide what happens to us and to Europe is just empty talk and it will become increasingly difficult to convince people to vote, considering that their area of choice is extremely limited. I will elaborate more on this in my last post before the elections and I will show you why I am extremely disappointed by many things that have been said before these elections and which have strongly shaken my belief that voting on Sunday (and in general) is important.
Meanwhile, I am sure the turnout in Romania will not exceed 25%.
(17 votes, average: 4.59 out of 5)
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RE “Meanwhile, I am sure the turnout in Romania will not exceed 25%.”
Simply unacceptable.Reasons for the low turnout?: a) new democracy, people are not used to expressing themselves, b) Europe seems far away, c) Romanian political system is too corrupted to bother, d) European political system is too corrupted to bother, e) voting does make any difference.
stergios, assuming that at point e) you meant to say “voting doesn’t make any difference”, i would say the answer to your question regarding the low turnout is a bit of a, b, c and e taken together. i will elaborate more on the turnout issue in a post that i hope to write tomorrow, so i wouldn’t want to detail the subject too much now.
neverthless, the low turnout is/will be a consequence mainly of the very poor quality of romanian politicians, of the fact that no party really cares about these elections and used the campaign just as a preparation for the next presidential elections. romanians are also not very informed about the EU or the EP and obviously don’t care too much about them to try and get informed. it’s a vicious circle that is very difficult to break.
and i have to confess i meant to say 20% instead of 25%, but i changed my mind before publishing the post, just for the sake of optimism. i don’t think it will go over 20%.
Yes, my eyes also boggled when I read the bit at the end that said: “.. turnout in Romania will not exceed 25%”.
Dear God, that’s low.
Why not have compulsory voting, like in Australia? And lots and lots of publicity and events?
Slovakia had 17% in 2004. It’s normal, considering the very poor quality of politics. I prefer a low turnout if those 20% or 25% are the ones who cast a relevant, informed vote, than 70% in which 50% have no idea what these elections are about.
Compulsory voting can be a useful tool, but for an advanced democracy, not like the one in Romania. The scale of vote rigging would be enormous.
I wrote another post on low voting turnouts and I explained a bit the reasons of these low numbers.
http://elections.thinkaboutit.eu/2009/06/arguments-in-defense-of-the-many-who-will-not-vote-in-these-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-3877
[...] folosit la noi, competiţia e redusă practic la vreo 4 din cele 33 de mandate ale României. Deja ne cunoaştem 29 dintre europarlamentari încă dinainte să fi început votarea. [...]
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