I’ve been looking at Predict09′s latest predictions and from looking at the headline figures from last thursdays figures for Ireland. To me it is a case that this is election for Labour to loose.
The headline figures are (in comparison to 2004 figures):
As the figures suggest Labour will make gains in this election. The two seats will most likely be in Ireland East and Ireland South. Fianna Fail look dead set to loose in Dublin. Fine Gael unless they get the vote share right in Ireland East will loose the seat held by Avril Doyle. Kathy Sinnot will be struggling to hang on to her seat.
What is interesting is that it looks like Libertas will out poll Green Party and Sinn Fein yet will not win a seat. If they poll this figure on the day, will they continue as a party if they dont get a seat?
The next prediction will be out on June 4th so an eve of election poll, how exciting!
Originally posted on Stephenspillane.com
(5 votes, average: 4.40 out of 5)
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Hi Stephen,
I don’t find these national level statistics very helpful for a country like Ireland which is broken up into multiple constituencies. It all depends where those votes are cats if you are determine the number of seats arising. Thus Libertas, with 7%, won’t get any seats if the votes are spread relatively even across the 3 constituencies they are competing in. But if they have 15-20% of the vote in Ireland Northwest, then Declan Ganley is in with a real chance.
Do you know where Predict09 get’s its percentages from? The figures are significantly different from the Irish Times and Sunday Business Post polls. Do they do their own polling, and is that available by constituency?
Frank, as an avid reader of polls I do find these helpful
I dont know who does their polling, but I think its their own.
Even in constituency polling done by TNS/MRBI (another one is due on Friday btw) Libertas arent polling anywhere near that high. So I dont think he is in with a shout.
They have done some constituency work though as they have Harkin and Sinnott seperated, so they must have an idea. Esp as you can deduce where the loses and gains are going to be. Mainly with changes in Dublin (FF Loss) East (FG Loss, Lab Gain) and South (Ind Loss, Lab Gain)