This was originally posted on stephenspillane.com
I blogged recently about Predict 09’s Irish Predictions, but while looking through the country analysis I noticed something. Libertas will not win any seats in the European Parliament. In fact there is only vote share predicted for Ireland and Poland. In Ireland it is predicted at 7% and in Poland its predicted for 0% (+ the margin of error which is 4%). It is not predicted to win seats in Ireland or Poland. Let alone anywhere else!
This is dispite the fact that, that they are fielding candidates in 24 of the member states. Is Libertas that much of a waste of time?
Will this happen? I don’t know. Its highly unlikely that Libertas will pick up seats in Ireland (unless Sinnott joins them after the election), but they could pick up seats in the United Kingdom, where Labour and UKIP are predicted to be down.
Interesting times ahead for the Mr. Ganeley.
(7 votes, average: 4.71 out of 5)
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You noticed an interesting thing, Stephen
Libertas.lv is candidating also in Latvia with 8 candidates. I’d say that the possibility to have at least one MEP seat is pretty high as their number 1 candidate is one of our current MEPs Guntars Krasts (and I do believe that people will vote for the current MEPs because of their experience). I have more doubts abt the rest of the candidates, because their names at least to me make no sense - one of them is unemployed 24-25 years old girl, second is an advisor to our EC commissioner, but living in Latvia, not Brussels, the rest of them have different experience, mostly not related with politics as well…
I think that is the problem Anita. Unless they have sitting MEPs, most of their candidates are unknowns. Even in Ireland the only Libertas candidate with household recognition is Declan Ganley and he is the leader of it!
Hi Stephen!
I have been predicting no seats for Libertas in Ireland but Declan Ganley has just had a stroke of luck with the withdrawal of a sitting MEP Sean O’Neachtain for reasons of ill health. This, combined with the fact that Fianna Fail have replaced him with a Donegal based candidate means that Galway - the most populous part of the constituency - is wide open for Declan Ganley as the only major Galway based candidate.
The Third seat is wide open in the North West Constituency, so a good vote in Galway could make Ganley a viable candidate. My guess is that Fianne Gael, Labour or Sinn Fein are slightly more likely to get that last seat, but Libertas is no longer the very outside bet it was before.
In relation to the UK, I can’t see Libertas getting the 9 - 20% of the vote they would need to get a seat in any constituency. Remember they are competing with the Tories, the UKIP and the BNP for the Eurosceptic vote, and votes in British elections, unlike in Ireland, are not transferable.
Frank, He may be the only Galway Candidate but I think SF or Lab will take the seat. Susan O’Keeffe has been doing trojan work. SF were only tipped at the post last time out. Can’t see the people of North-West beening very euosceptic.
Your totally right on the UK. One UKIP Campaigner told me that UKIP will win more seats in one country then Libertas will in 24. Thought he was right!
Which are the three countries where Libertas will not run? Their Bulgarian branch has just been denied registration for the EP elections, posted it here - http://elections.thinkaboutit.eu/2009/05/libertas-branch-in-bulgaria-denied-ep-election-registration/.
Romania is one of the three Libertas free countries. There has been extremely little talk about them here.
Germany is the thrid Libertas free country. They missed the deadline there.
so Romania, Bulgaria and Germany… it means Romania and Bulgaria have more in common in Germany than they ever thought! haha…
George - if the only thing Germany, Romania and Bulgaria have in common is the lack of Libertas candidates, then I’m afraid they don’t have very much in common at all!
you’re right, Frank.. that’s the sad irony that will always keep Romania and Bulgaria in the Balkans.