The above graph is from Ipsos MORI. We’re just a matter of weeks away from polling day, and the number of people who see the EU as the most important issue facing Britain is at rock-bottom. There could be at least two reasons for that: 1) Perhaps it’s actually a sign that euroscepticism is waning 2) Of course with massive economic problems, it’s not surprising that the EU and a whole raft of other issues are falling down Britons’ list of priorities.
This is what Mike Smithson from PoliticalBetting.com had to say:
In broad public terms the EU itself hardly registers when pollsters ask people to list their concerns. Just look at the chart above from MORI with the latest numbers and look how concern EU-linked issues has touched a new low.
I always like this poll. For almost every month for getting on for three decades MORI has asked its “most important issues facing the country” questions in exactly the same format. Two points are put, both completely unprompted. Firstly they are asked which is the “most important issue” then they are asked to name, without a limit on numbers “other important issues”.
In 2004 Tony Blair went to great lengths to try to avoid Labour humiliation in the last Euro elections. The local and London elections were switched to the same day, he promised a referendum on the EU constitution to take away Michael Howard’s key campaign point, Ken Livingston was allowed back into the party so at least Labour would have some good news from the day, and large parts of England voted in an all-postal ballot for the first time boosting turnout in those places by 5% and helping the Labour shares.
By contrast Brown appears to have done nothing. There’s no big issue to put the Tories on the spot, the public are not interested, and it’s likely that the national turnout level could fall maybe to below 30%.
So it does look like, in Britain, we’re going to have one of the lowest ever voter-turnouts. I’m curious to know what it’s looking like in your home countries. Go on, fill me in…..
(5 votes, average: 3.20 out of 5)
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Is this another original interview, Etan?
If it is - then I have a piece of criticism for you (in an otherwise excellent post) - you’re not making that clear enough!
You’re being too modest and what you need to do is self-promote more. If this is indeed original research, you need to say “in my interview with Mike Smithson, he said…”
People do not expect bloggers to interview. What you are doing is amazing. If you do not make it clear that this is what you are doing, people will assume you have just cut and pasted from an article and are doing regular blogging (i.e. news analysis).
I’m continually impressed by your efforts, Etan - so I’m going to be more critical with you.
Your title “Does this suggest a low turnout on June 4th? Place your bets…” is too ambigious.
This title would be perfect for a sub-heading, in the main body of the text but beneath your main title. But it is unsuitable for your title.
You have to think about how your title will come across in web-searches, RSS feeds and archive lists. It must be as clear as possible.
I can be guilty of ambigious titles myself - and it’s something I also have to work at. But something like “UK Public Interest in EU Lowest Since 1988″ is clear and attention grabbing.
You can probably think of a better example - but it should strike a balance between being clear (but boring) and being interesting (but ambigious).
Keep up the good work, Etan!
Joe
Hi Josef, Thanks for the comment and the criticism is certainly appreciated - I’ll work on my headlines!
No, unfortunately this one wasn’t an original interview. The link is in the article. But now you’ve got such high expectations, I’ll have to raise my game!
Hehe, well that’s my fault for not following your links properly.
My criticism doesn’t really apply here, then
- but I think it did apply a bit to your last post. I don’t think you made a big enough deal of your interviews!
You have indeed set yourself high standards because of your last post. You don’t need to carry out interviews or original research for a good blog-post. News analysis is very important.
But if you DO carry out your own research, you’ll be ahead of the game.
I like your new title! That’s exactly what I mean!
Hi, Etan
You might be interested to know: this post caught the attention of (as far as I know) the most-read Eurosceptic blog on the internet!
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/05/think-about-it.html
He has a point: lack of interest in the EU could very well be down to how bloody boring it is!
Have you seen any figures showing how interested other European publics are in the EU? If the same trend is displayed right across the board, then EU Referendum has a point.
If it’s unique to a small number of countries (or just to the UK) then boredom might not be the reason.
It is false logic to conclude that British interest in the EU is at a 20 year low on the basis that the MORI poll found few who saw the EU as the “most important” or amongst “other important” issues.
It is the subjects themselves, such as jobs, immigration and, in its widest terms, the public finances, that people are worried about, NOT necessarily the authority that imposes the laws that affect those subjects.
Pre-1973, the Westminster parliament was the supreme law-maker for the UK. Since then EU law has prevailed and the EU is now responsible for the vast majority of legislation (85% according to the Federal German parliament).
So in the same way that one would not expect to see “Westminster” listed by many people in a pre-1973 poll as the “most important issue facing Britain”, one should not expect to see “the EU” similarly listed today.
However, there is evidence (e.g. BBC Daily Politics poll showing 54% wanting the UK to actually leave the EU) to suggest that the British electorate is beginning to understand the extent to which its laws are dictated by Brussels, albeit rubber-stamped by Westminster. This suggests that the turnout at the European elections on June 4th may be far higher than your correspondent from PoliticalBetting.com thinks.
David Samuel
I think you that graph should show the trend at least since 1988. The graph is shown with a decreasing bias.
I tend to agree with David Samuel about UK voting trends.I am talking to voters who are very unsatisfied with the way the political parties are handling the UK in Europe.I think people are going to vote almost as a protest anti-government vote in the EU elections.I think people are fed up with the lack of transparency and they are wondering about how good MEP representation really is i.e how do they vote,how often do they attend the parliament.Maybe the UK turnout to vote might could be higher than anticipated.
The reason is quite simple, all major parties have deliberately kept silent over the effects of the EU on our Country. In this they have been aided by the media in general and by BBC pro EU bias. They deliberately conflate Europe and the EU although they are totally different things. To cap all this the EU was set up to hollow out our institutions, people actually think that our Parliament run the country as it did before the takeover. It doesn’t! When people find out what has been done in their name there could well be trouble, we did not agree to join the EU, never, not ever, no how.
Derek