Ethan’s post about the fact that the European Election could be another nail in the coffin for Gordon Brown, got me thinking could it be the same in Ireland to the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen . In fact an article in on the Irish Independent’s website wonders the same thing.
In the last election in 2004 Fianna Fail lost two MEP’s and 80 Councillors, this time out they could loose two MEPs a similar amount of councillors PLUS a seat in Dáil Eireann (Lower house of Parliament). Also up for grabs is another seat in the Dáil formerly held by an Independent. June 5th is being dupped a “Super Friday” here in Ireland due to the Local, European and Bye-Elections all being held at the same time and could become a “Super Headache” for Brian Cowen.
The latest poll by Predict 09 for Ireland forecast that Fianna Fail will loose two of its MEP’s. The gainers from this will be Labour and Sinn Fein which will retain a seat due to Fianna Fail loosing it. (NOTE: Ireland is going from 13 seats to 12)
Since the last election of course things have gone badly wrong and this is Cowen’s first electoral test since becoming Taoiseach last year. Loosing seats is not something he wants to happen, but I think most in Fianna Fail are resigned to it.
Some of the Fianna Fail MEP’s have no mention of Fianna Fail on their campaign cars. Brian Crowley, MEP for Ireland South, is one such MEP. His Mercedes has no mention of Fianna Fail and you have to look very closely at his posters to see a mention of Fianna Fail.
June 6th and 7th will give lots of interesting results!
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(3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5)
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Fianna Fail expectations for these polls are so low that it is hard to see how Cowen can disappoint them. However if he does lose even more Euro seats and a large number of local Government seats then the writing will be on the wall for him. The problem is that Fianna Fail don’t really have a viable alternative as all their ministers are tainted by their failure to stop the current boom/bust cycle. So Cowen will probably limp along until the next general election. What is remarkable is that he has survived for so long. Now if the Greens were to pull the plug….
Im being very cynical and saying greens will pull out after June 2010 as then they get their ministerial pensions. It will be very hard for Cowen to stay on if this is a landslide to FG/Lab. The knives will be out and the backbenchers will be looking for a new leader. If they loose both bye-elections then every vote will be needed in the Dáil se expect to see Bertie in the chamber a lot! It will be interesting!