As I shared in my last post, in Bulgaria we make little difference between the EU elections and those for the Bulgarian parliament. The only difference may be that the EU elections will come sooner and will serve as a barometer for the public opinion. As the greatest prize for any party is seats in the Bulgarian parliament, their strategies for selecting and promoting MEP candidates will revolve around that context.
It is not a secret that the government has very low approval ratings. There have been numerous corruption scandals, stopped EU funds, questionable last-minute laws and of course - the crawling economic crisis. Many voters feel like no one is in the pilot seat, while most of the government has taken up the role of the stewardess that tries to calm down the passengers. That’s why many political analysts predict that BSP will not be able to form the next government. Not even with the help of DPS and NDSV. The first one will get it’s regular few percents from it’s core of supporters – enough to get a few seats in the parliament. The second however has slim chances to pass the 4% limit on its own and may attempt to form a election coalition with other parties.
Most people agree that the winner party in the EU and possibly the Bulgarian parliament elections will be GERB. The public support for it’s leader Boyko Borisov overwhelms the claims that he has connections to the criminal world. People mostly see him as a strong leader that will keep tight control on the discipline and organization within the new government. His track record of excluding party members on suspicions of corruption have brought more people to the relatively young party. There are however concerns about his crude way of talking, which although appealing to part of the public, may not be suitable for such an official post as a prime minister. Despite all the rumors and the fact that most people openly disapprove of his personality, many would vote for GERB, because they dislike the ruling coalition even more.
In the European Parliament elections Bulgaria has 17 seats. I predict that GERB will get 7 seats, BSP will get 5, DPS and Ataka will each get 2 and SDS/DSB will get one. Who the actual members will be, depend on election coalition treaties and internal politics. These will not be known until the last 2-3 weeks before the elections
Even if GERB wins the Bulgarian Parliament elections, they will probably not be able to form a government, because of the lack of majority. BSP and DPS are in and will form an opposition. Ataka is also in and will be divided between opposing the socialist and Borisov. The big question of the day is if SDS and DSB will make the 4% limit. In that case there is a big chance that they will support GERB and take part in the new government. That however is to be seen. In my views those right parties are growing more stable and can only earn voters from the scandals and election war that goes between BSP and GERB. In the end many may become disillusioned by the strong promises of Borisov and seek yet another alternative.
In any case, it is possible that the right wing parties will not be able to form a government. In that case GERB has promised not to collate with BSP or DPS. In that case we will have either another socialist government or a political crises on our hands. My personal opinion is that both are equally bad, especially because of the widely spread opinion that the socialists are not able and/or willing to address the corruption problems and lack of control on EU fund spending. All the reports of the EU Commission have expressed such concerns as well.
Finally it is worth mentioning that there are several very promising new parties and candidates that may gather unexpected support for the EU elections. Since so many people have moved away from the left, they may decide to invest their votes in smaller topic specific parties such as the Green or even the Pirates. Thus they may be able to get one of their candidates in the EP and everything will get a lot more exciting for us Bulgarians.
(138 votes, average: 4.12 out of 5)
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It’s under question if the BSP + DPS option is still a socialist choice. I would argue on that thesis despite of the party’s name (the Bulgarian Socialists Party).
My non-professional point of view is GERB getting the majority in the parliament with a coalition formed with DSB or/and SDS. Without being much positive on that choice, I prefer this party than DPS and BSP leading the country in the next couple of years.
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@Mario - it’s questionable if any bulgarian party, let alone a coalition, can be called right or left, because the only difference they have is if they like Russia or not. Other than that I haven’t seen any major policy differences so far.
Who are the Pirates :)?
The Pirate Party - digital rights and anti-copyright activists. I know they have a branch in Bulgaria, but I’m not sure if they are registered.
interesting…thnx
Could you please spell Bulgarian and Bulgaria with capital letters… even if the reason is simply proper English.
What an idio*, who cannot even write his country and people with capital letters. It is obvious that you are a little cheater and without any dignity!
@Al Gore: don’t you think you are overreacting? I don’t think that this style of commenting is appropriate here.
@Al Gore - All “Bulgaria” is with capitals. In German and in Bulgarian, the word “Bulgarian” is written in small letters, so I though that it should be like that. It’s my mistake and I corrected it.
I don’t see however why you would call me a “little cheater and without any dignity”. Could you please elaborate on that, so that we could resolve the issue.
@ Al Gore: is it so difficult for you to be a little bit more civilized? First Bulgaria is written everywhere with a capital letter, second in our native tongue (e.g. Bulgarian) the country name should be written with a capital letter but never the name for its occupants (e.g. Bulgarians, Germans, Americans) so it’s not so difficult to mix our rule for that of “proper” English. I don’t see why exactly this mistake can be qualified as undignified or cheating, not to mention that you called the author “idio*”.
I’m ready to take a bet that GERB will not pass the 5 mandate threshold they reached last time. Turnout expected is quite low - 30% = ~2 mln. votes. Deduct the core socialist and minority electorate - around 800 000 in total in 2007 and you’re left with 1.2 mln. votes to distribute between ATAKA (usually gets at least 350 000), the center-right SDS/DSB coalition, GERB and all the other parties that will run.
@Hristo - First, I expect a lot more than 30% turnout. Secondly, the same figures that you mentioned were expected for the 2007 elections and they still got more. Furthermore, a great percentage of the BSP supporters are expected to move to the center or right parties due to the aggressive and scandalous actions.
The latest Eurobarometer study on expected turnout shows 31% of Bulgarians would vote AT THIS POINT - http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/low-turnout-expected-ep-elections/article-117781. Of course that number could change in the next 52 days left to election date.
@Hristo - this is exactly what I am hoping. Considering the last measures that the government has undertaken, I hope that many people will go out and vote for a change. Plus we should not disregard the attempts, both from the blogger community and some of the mainstream media, to make the EP more popular so that the voters can recognise their role in the EU institutions.
My predictions here are shared by this survey (in Bulgarian) by the Institute of Marketing and Social Research.
They show that GERB will gets 30% support or about 48% of the seats in the EP and national parliament. That means 8 seats or with one seat more optimistic than what I suggested. That seat may come either from that of SDS/DSB, or from those of DSP. They also confirm my suspicions that the EP elections will act as exercise and sort of an official poll before the national parliament elections.
Here is a comparison of three different predictions regarding the bulgarian EP elections:
3 EP election predictions - disturbing in their own way
Mine seems to be closer to the field results of public pools.
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