I came across this site while checking out my new followers on twitter. The website is Predict 09.
Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).
The current prediction has the EPP staying the largest party with 248 seats and the Socialists the second largest on 209.
Despite the fact one of the researchers is from Ireland, Im not so sure about their predictions for Ireland. They ar epredicting Fine Gael five seats, Fianna Fail four seats, Labour one seat, Sinn Fein one seat and independents one seat, which would see Marian Harkin lose her seat as she is the ALDE independent. This cannot be right as Harkin is in North-West Constituency and the loss of a seat is going to be in the Dublin Constituency. The only way that this is possbile is which ever party loses a seat in Dublin, gains a seat in North-West. Will that happen?
Last time out Marian Harkin topped the poll on 15.82% of the vote followed by Pearse Dohery of Sinn Fein on 15.5% of the vote. Sinn Fein are within hope of a seat here but at the expense of Harkin? Im not so sure. If anything its the Fine Gael seat that is at stake as Jim Higgins came fourth on first preferences but got in mainly thanks to transfers from Madeline Taylor-Quinn. Will Jim Higgins and Senator Joe O’Reilly pull off the same feat?
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Source: Elections Ireland - 2004 European Elections - Ireland North-West
(11 votes, average: 3.73 out of 5)
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[...] This also posted on Thinkaboutit. Please read and [...]
Hi
I wrote a post about it too. You can read it on
http://elections.thinkaboutit.eu/2009/04/the-predictor/
I have also noticed that the investigators have a lack of knowledge of national politics. It’s an interesting project but the results of there polls are questionable.
Their model also does not take turnout into account - something that’s crucial in the UK for EP elections. Probably their numbers for the EU as a whole will be about right, but there will be significant variations for individual countries’ results.
I know, I read it Eveline.
There does seam to be a lack of comprehension with the boundry changes in Ireland and things like that. Which im surprised at considering one of the authors is in Trinity College Dublin
Your probably right Jon.
I’ll declare my interest: I work for Burson-Marsteller, the company hosting the Predict09.eu website.
The authors noted in the launch press conference that the individual national results may not be wholly accurate - the intention is to get an overall impression of the look of the new Parliament. The resources required to look in great detail at individual countries or regions - especially in member states with a small number of MEPs - would be enormous, and with negligible impact on the overall result when just six countries have more than half the seats.
I’m sure that these projections will become more accurate as we move towards polling day - the site will be updated weekly from mid-April.