Last week-end Moldova had parliamentary elections. The ruling Party of Communists won so no big change in politics is expected. Elections in EU’s border have however some 
significance as the new leadership will be the counterpart during period after EP elections influencing e.g. enlargement, partnership and security questions. Before Moldova (FYRO) Macedonia already had their voting and many ways very important elections in Ukraine are coming later.
Moldova is one of the frontlines of “battlefield” of interest spheres between EU and Russia, between U.S. and Russia and between future energy political deals. It is also a test for international law, conflict management and territorial sovereignty.
Elections
As many as 50 per cent of Moldovan eligible voters cast their ballots for the Party of Communists (PCRM). Thus, the ruling party won a landslide victory leaving the other three political parties that made it to parliament far behind. Three other parties managed to pass the 6 per cent threshold required to enter the legislature - the Liberal Democrat Party with 13.9 per cent, the Liberal Party with 13.9 per cent and Our Moldova Alliance with 10 per cent. Liberals have demanded Moldova’s reunification with Romania. All three are in favour of closer ties with the European Union, free-market policies and pursuing NATO membership. The Communists (PCRM) are pro-EU, anti-NATO and less market-friendly.
The other formations failed to clear the six-per-cent threshold. The Social Democratic Party - which proposed (Infotag 20 March 2009) to pass the Transnistrian region to the Russian Federation into a concession for 30 years - grabbed 3.71 per cent of the votes, the Christian Democratic Popular Party 3.02 per cent, the Democratic Party 2.97; the Moldovan Centrist Union 2.76 per cent and the European Action Movement 1 per cent. The other parties and independent candidates mustered less than one per cent.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) has reported voter turnout was 59.52%, i.e. 1,543,966 persons, of whom 14,838 people voted at polling stations opened in foreign countries.
The April 5 parliamentary elections in Moldova met many international standards and commitments, but further improvements are required to ensure an electoral process free from undue administrative interference and to increase public confidence, the International Election Observation Mission said in a statement, on Monday, April 6, at a news conference.
Transdnistrian question
Moldovans share a linguistic and historical heritage with Romania, but its Transdniestria – aka Pridnestrovie aka Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublica (PMR) - region broke away in Soviet times because it feared Moldova would unite with Romania. Most of Moldova was once part of its western neighbour. Transdnistria has practically been independent – if not recognized – state already over 17 years. Short historical representation one may find from here.
On March 18 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev hosted Moldovan President Voronin and Transnistria’s President Smirnov at the Barvikha residence near Moscow. The three signed a Russian-drafted joint declaration. Apparently panicking in the run-up to the April 5 elections, Voronin has hoisted the white flag of surrender on Transnistria in return for a pre-election endorsement from the Kremlin. However March 25th he refused to go to Tiraspol for a meeting with Smirnov. A day earlier Transnistrian republic announced slapping a travel ban on a whole number of Western (EU and U.S.) officials. Smirnov stated that this was Tiraspol’s reply to the European Union Council of Ministers’ decision to extend for another 12 months, until February 2010, the travel ban on top Transnistria officials. (Infotag 25.3.2009)
Within the meeting the participants were to evaluate the 
functioning of the eight work groups created to elaborate the confidence-building measures between Chisinau and Tiraspol in the social-economic and humanitarian domains and to single out new tasks related to this.
Post-election protest
Violent protests have broken out in Moldova after the ruling Communist Party was elected on Sunday. About 10,000 - some sources claim over 30,000 - demonstrators gathered on a central square in Moldova’s capital Chisinau to protest against the newly elected government. Some had waved European, Romanian and Moldovan flags from the roof of the president’s offices.
Some of the protesters are demanding Moldova’s reunification with Romania, while others are chanting “Down with the Communists!” Some protesters stormed the Moldovan parliament and presidential office and set fire to furniture. Traffic along the city’s thoroughfare has ground to a halt, but police say they have the situation under control. One woman died and about a hundred people were hurt after protesters.
Some possible consequences
Moldova’s parliament will select a new President as Mr Voronin is not eligible according law to be reselected anymore. However he probably will get new influential post – maybe PM or Speaker of Parliament – so his policy will continue. This means no to NATO, no to reunification with Romania, some but not full cooperation with EU, continuing decline of GUUAM (cooperation body supported by US energy giants and military-industrial-complex) and frozen situation with separatist regions.
Talks about solution for Transdnistria/PMR 
will probably continue in 2+1 format (Moldova and PMR as parties, Russia mediator), possible result will be delivered to official “western backed” 5 (Moldova/PMR, Russia, Ukraine, OSCE)+2 (U.S. and EU) process.
If the talks are leading to unlikely scenario to pursue the federalization of the Republic of Moldova then also it is expected that the demands of transforming Gagauzia region from autonomy to republic will increase.
Notwithstanding the outcome of Moldova/PMR talks the separatist region will continue its life as state – Transdnistria has all statehood elements, its economy is relatively good with export to over 100 countries and it can manage without UN seat. If EU recognize the reality it could remove the visa ban and start pragmatic cooperation.
More about topic one may find from my earlier articles:
(16 votes, average: 3.63 out of 5)
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“A short historical representation”? If you write it like that people might expect a balanced historical summary taking into account both sides of the story. But to link only to the “official” Transnistrian historical interpretation without any indication of the bias of the source is definitely misleading. Of course history is contested but in order to get background information (as you wanted to provide) I think it is necessary to show both sides of the story with a clear explanation of the sources.
Perhaps you could give link representing other side’s historical interpretation so we could add it to comments or article itself.
One thing I know about the Balkans is that there are always more than two sides of every story. I don’t know much about moldovian politics, but I know that the election process went though without problems. Why people voted like that and how the ballot was counted - we can only speculate. One thing I know though is that the Bulgarian diaspora in Moldova is not interested in joining Romania for many historical and economical reasons.
Nevertheless, I don’t think that such a country may exist much longer. Take Austro-Hungaria and Yugoslavia for example - one was designed as buffer state and the other was allowed to exist as a compromise. In both cases however, the world leaders decided that it is easier not to deal with the problem at hand, but to create a temporary solution and pray. I think that we can expect the same from Moldova.
the blue font is a bit disturbing, pressing on eyes!
A Follow-Up 8.4.2009:
According BalkanInsight.com – online publication of Balkan Investigative Reporting Network - Moldova’s president Vladimir Voronin today accused Romania of involvement in the violent protests which have swept Chisinau. Moldova has also decided to expel the Romanian ambassador and to introduce visa requirements for its Western neighbour.
Moldova was part of Romania from 1918 to 1940 until it was annexed by the Soviet Union. Moldova became independent in 1991 and the two countries share the same ethnic and linguistic background. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated under Vladimir Voronin’s Presidency. In 2007 Moldova stopped Romania from opening two consulates in the country, claiming Bucharest was trying to lure Moldovan citizens.
“The April 5 parliamentary elections in Moldova met many international standards and commitments, but further improvements are required to ensure an electoral process free from undue administrative interference and to increase public confidence, the International Election Observation Mission said in a statement, on Monday, April 6, at a news conference.”
Have you checked the exact compositions of the commissions or the blatant amount of fraudulent reports from individuals where observers were not ‘touring’ closely guarded by Communist Party officials. Whole graveyards voted here. As well as a huge number of expats - at least their names were on the lists. But the people themselves could not vote, being denied to do so from abroad.
Cultural ethnic and linguistic background is little said.. Moldova is a half of one of the three main regions of Romania, annexed repeatedly by Russia, going back and forth for the last two centuries.
As for your ‘pragmatic’ approach to Transnistria… How pragmatic can you be for a real crime state ran by ex-Soviet army officers, a ’state’ protected by Russian interests trough which all crime flows into the EU, where money can be laundered endlessly and which is, in the end, little more than an army-style mafia syndicate?
Voronin is playing the ‘Romania wants to take over’ card since forever, as taught well by Kremlin, thus ensuring embarassed shuffling from NATO and the EU who can’t help but wonder at all the Romanian interest in the region (without truly understanding its nature) and fail to prevent the Communists to run a dictatorship under the guise of an electoral democracy.
“Look at the monkey” says Voronin while he does as he pleases, and the monkey is Romania, plagues by an empidemy of impotent and weak diplomacy for two decades now…
To Bogdan:
International Election Observation Mission (IEOM), which included representatives from OSCE, European Parliament and Council of Europe, published after elections their “Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions” which one may find from here:
http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2009/04/37142_en.pdf
The OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission (EOM) opened in Chisinau on 26 February with 42 experts and long-term observers of 23 OSCE participating States deployed in the capital and seven regional centers. On election day, the IEOM deployed some 400 short-term observers from 43 OSCE participating States, including 70 members of the OSCE PA delegation, 19 from PACE, and 13 from the European Parliament. The IEOM observed voting throughout the Republic of Moldova in some 1,300 polling stations out of a total of 1,977, and counting was observed in some 100 polling stations in all electoral districts. The IEOM was also present in all District Electoral Councils to observe the tabulation of results.
The problems you mentioned e.g. with voting lists etc. are documented in report referred above, however their influence did not change the overall quite positive assessment made in OSCE report. Problems and overall impressions can be found also from OSCA press release here
http://www.osce.org/item/37139.html
Your description about Mr. Voronin is probably quite right - I wouldn’t buy used car from him.
About Transdnistria I have a bit more positive picture than you, maybe because I like to compare it Kosovo, which from my point of view has much more potential to become real “captured” state. I also have impression hat Albanian organized crime has many times bigger influence and money flow than possible syndicats in Transdnistria.
Transdnistria has all statehood elements, its economy is relatively good with export to over 100 countries
Ari, do you have more details on the export? In particular, I’m interested in whether Transdniester actually exports to them directly, or simply produces goods/raw materials which are processed in repackaged elsewhere, and then sold on.
Also, do you have data on which industries are significant parts of Transdniester’s economy?
To Andrei:
The export from Transdnistria/PMR is some 500 m$ (btw Kosovo’s export is some 70 m$ even when Kosovo has a population four times bigger than PMR). About economical base. PMR is a supplier of ferrous metal, machine-building products, light and food industry, electrical power, specialty construction materials and woodworking products. PMR is an important supplier of electrical cabling, winding wire, electric insulating material, explosion-proof engines, power transformers, AC generators, laminates and laminated bakelite insulations, molds for shoe production, and low-voltage electrical devices and pumps.
Industrial output is dominated by export from manufacturing enterprises (around 90% between 1997-2002). As Russia is compensating the energy costs in PMR this factor also has influence to economy.
Since a reform-oriented program of privatizations begun in 2001-2002, more than 120 large companies have successfully been privatized.
PMR is exporting to nearly 100 countries. Italy, Germany and the United States are important export markets, nevertheless, the bulk of the production still goes to the geographically closer CIS countries. Other notable countries for PMR’s foreign trade include Switzerland, Romania, Great Britain, Poland, Cyprus and Turkey.
Just over forty international joint ventures operate in PMR. Partners include companies from Bulgaria, Canada, Hungary, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Russia, and Italy; employing nearly 6,000 people in total.
In 1996, an agreement was signed between Chisinau and Tiraspol, which inter alia granted Moldovan customs stamps to PMR, allowing the latter to legalise its exports and consolidate its economy. However, with its accession to the WTO in May 2001, Moldova introduced a new customs
stamp on 1 September 2001. PMR businesses were also encouraged to register with the Moldovan State Chamber of Commerce in Chisinau by 1 January 2004 in order to receive official customs certificates and the new stamps. EU has border monitoring mission in region.
Practically there is two customs regime operating, the dispute e.g. about use of Moldova’s custom stamps has continued and I do not have here exact updated information which channels the PMR export is using.
The political situation in Moldova suffers from the same disease as the Ukrainian politics does; paralysis.
In both countries the politic forces that are in favour of cooperation with, or even integration into the E.U., are about equally strong as the political forces that want to maintain strong ties with the Russian Federation. Therefore in both countries the politic party’s are using there skills and energy fighting each other, instead of coping with the immense economic challenge brought to them by the world economic crisis. As far as I can see, the best solution for both countries is to be pragmatic and make some kind of split into a more western and a more eastern orientated part. For the Ukraine this partition can look somehow as according to this map; http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhgz6cjv_58d43w8pg7
For Moldova it will be a bit more complicated to split because the people living west from the Dniester (else than on the east -Transnitrian-side where they are commonly pro-Russian) are very divided about this subject. Maybe, reading the internet and following the media, you think that the Romanian culture rules here, but when you were walking the streets of Chisinau, Moldova’s capital, you find an other truth. In this city, Russian and Romanian are both commonly used, and often even mixed. http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhgz6cjv_20cdmfmkhd
Even the bill-board from the latest elections were partly written in the Russian language, as you can see on some pictures I made; http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhgz6cjv_62dm2zdmgb
In the long run, I would not be surprised when Moldova would to some degree merge with Romania, and Transnistria to some degree with the Ukraine, but convinced about this I am not.
Ron.
Wow. It’s amazing you spill conspiracy theories on a daily basis yet you are so ready to accept the declaration of a mainly CIS OSCE mission over the correctnes of the elections…
And your quest to provide reasons for the legitimacy of Transnistria.. just wow. Don’t get me wrong, no one in Ukraine, Moldova or Romania wants that strip of land anymore, but that still doesnt make it anything else than a mob-run state. It’s common knowledge. Street urchins in Chisinau can give you a better description of it that the figures you described..
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